A systems approach to climate change resilient flooding risk
Dr Zhan Tian received the UK–China Urban Flooding Research Impact Programme Award in 2018 for an earlier project on mitigating flood risks in Shanghai. This led to a current project with the School of Asian Studies at University of London and HR Wallingford Ltd. It will develop systems and models to look at flood risk and urban water resilience to support urban planning in the context of climate change, reflecting the Academy’s strategic goal of creating a sustainable society.
Collaboration
Dr Zhan Tian is no stranger to international collaboration. He has more than 20 years’ experience in climate change impact analysis, and the design and implementation of adaptations and mitigations. This experience, and the collaboration involved in a previous project ‘Developing Engineering Options for Mitigating Future Compound Flooding Risks in Shanghai by Transferring the Expertise of UK TE2100’, have led to his current work.
The DIA supported project brings together the University of London’s School of Asian Studies (SOAS) with HR Wallingford Ltd. The SOAS team brings expertise in combining engineering and sustainability measures in financial and economic cost-effectiveness analysis and in developing resilient adaptation strategies. UK-based HR Wallingford Ltd is a world-leading company in engineering and environmental hydraulics that is looking to gain more experience in China, apply new software methods to megacity flood problems, and help its subsidiary in China to learn and grow.
The process of identifying and bringing together these collaborators involved a careful assessment of their respective expertise and objectives. Through mutual recognition of the potential benefits and shared goals, Dr Zhan Tian successfully established the collaboration, leveraging the strengths and knowledge of both groups to tackle the challenges posed by climate change and urban flood risks.
Flood modelling with no regrets
The aim of the project will develop an innovative dynamic system framework. This will explore the impacts of population growth, economic development and climate change on urban water resilience. It will measure the performance of green and grey engineering facilities in reducing flood risk. This allows collaborative decision-making for grey and green engineering facilities to find robust pathways towards optimal solutions. Finally, it will provide methodological and applicable support to sustainable pathways for urban planning in changing climates, in line with the Academy’s strategic goal of creating sustainable societies.
“This project will strengthen the industry–university linkages to provide impactful research to deal with real climate and society challenges.”
This research incorporates the ‘no regrets’ perspective of the regret theory into the framework of dynamic adaptation pathways. The theory highlights that paying special attention to worst-case scenarios is reasonable and can help us identify preventative measures and solutions without being restricted by potential future regret of uncertainties. It further considers the need to design resilient engineering works with fixed thresholds and levels. It develops procedures to address future changes such as extreme climate events and the uncertainties of sea level rise, enabling the conversion of uncertain future changes to real engineering solutions.
Taking collaboration further
Two earlier Academy and EPSRC-funded projects made significant advances in flood modelling and engineering pathway design and evaluation in the context of Shanghai. Building on the achievements and successful collaborations with industry partners in China and UK in these two projects, this new proposal can help develop a systematic framework for more detailed and in-depth trade-off analysis across various plausible engineering solutions for mitigating climate change risks. Moreover, this project will strengthen the industry–university links to provide impactful research to deal with real climate and society challenges, supporting the DIA objectives.
Dr Zhan Tian hopes to share his knowledge and experience with colleagues both in the UK and China through the DIA programme and UK–China embassy networking, via lectures, seminar presentations, and working meetings. He will also bring experiences from London and the UK to the attention of Chinese policymakers and the public, given the established platforms he has in China. Through proposed knowledge sharing and dissemination activities, his colleagues and students will also have the opportunity to develop their research capability in innovative research in China. Decision-makers and other key players in climate change policy will be informed of scientific and engineering grounds for policy making on Shenzhen’s adaptation to climate change.